▲ PLAYER PROPS · MD3
SEN · IRQ — PP · MD3SenegalvsIraq
THE TAKEAWAY
One side has to score a lot.
The other has no strikers left.
SENEGAL CHASE GOAL DIFFERENCEIRAQ: BOTH STRIKERS OUT
01ZONE MAP
SEN · IRQ — PP · MD3Where the props live
1Sarr's right flank. Senegal's main attacking lane — Sarr's dribbling vs an exposed Doski, hunting inside runs. → Sarr shots
2Midfield control. Senegal hog the ball (59% L9) vs Iraq's deep 4-5-1; the centre-backs recycle unpressed. → Niakhaté passes
3Iraq's left, under siege. Doski is forced into constant recovery actions as the pressure piles on his side. → Doski tackles
02CROSS-LINK
SEN · IRQ — PP · MD3Two facts to one prop
The signature: a matchup plus a personnel fact, and a player prop falls out.
Sarr feasts on the flankSOLID
A · volume
Sarr leads with 9 shots so far and scored both Senegal goals last game.
+
B · matchup
He faces Doski, exposed against direct runners, on Senegal's primary attacking side.
=
Z · THE PROP
Sarr shots — OVER. Top shooter, best matchup, a side chasing goal difference.
Free man at the backSOLID
A · structure
Iraq defend with a lone striker in a 4-5-1, no press on Senegal's build-up.
+
B · role
Niakhaté already leads with 136 completed passes, recycling possession unchallenged.
=
Z · THE PROP
Niakhaté passes — OVER. A centre-back handed the ball all night with no pressure.
03THE PP SIGNAL
SEN · IRQ — PP · MD3Published picks
01
Ismaïla Sarr · shots OVER
top shooter vs Iraq's exposed left side
BASE › 9 shots so far at the tournament
HIGH
02
Moussa Niakhaté · passes OVER
unpressed build-up vs a deep block
BASE › 136 passes so far at the tournament
HIGH
03
Merchas Doski · tackles OVER
patching the flank Senegal keep attacking
BASE › 7 tackles won so far · confirm he starts
MEDIUM
+ Ref readTotal cards — UNDER. Anthony Taylor (delegated) is lenient — 3.79 cards/game; "player to be carded" on Iraq's defenders is overpriced. HIGH
HIGH — data-backedMEDIUM — one assumptionLEAN — speculative
One-way traffic: Senegal dominate the ball and must chase goal difference. Volume is the play; confirm the XI.
04EARLY RADAR
SEN · IRQ — PP · MD3On the radar, not yet called
Realization markets and LEAN reads — noisier profile, tracked early.
·
Sadio Mané · assists OVER
creating from the left half-space
BASE › 5 chances created, 1 assist at the tournament
LEAN
·
Sarr · to score OVER
2 goals last game, best matchup — but realization
WATCH
·
Senegal · team corners OVER
5.89/game L9, camped in Iraq's half — team line
WATCH
05AVOID
SEN · IRQ — PP · MD3Don't touch these
AVOID
Hussein / Mohannad Ali · any over
both out injured — Iraq's top two strikers gone
AVOID
Iraq midfielders / defenders · passes
41% possession, survival mode — no volume
FADE
Total cards · over
lenient ref + disciplined sides
THE BOTTOM LINE
Senegal must run up the score and Iraq sit deep with no strikers. Back the volume the siege creates — Sarr, Niakhaté, Doski under pressure.