▲ PLAYER PROPS · MD3
NZL · BEL — MD3New ZealandvsBelgium
THE TAKEAWAY
Belgium shoot a lot.
They just don’t score.
DE CUYPER & KDB SHOTS · CROCOMBE SAVESLUKAKU TO SCORE · DOKU PROPS = TRAPS
01ZONE MAP
NZL · BEL — MD3Where the props live
1Edge of the NZ box. A deep low block forces Belgium to shoot from distance — KDB orchestrates, 18.5 shots/game. → De Bruyne shots
2Belgium’s right / NZ left (Cacace). Overlapping full-back De Cuyper took 5 shots (4 on target) vs Iran from this channel. → De Cuyper shots / SOT
3NZ goal under siege. Crocombe absorbs huge volume — 17 saves on tour. → Crocombe saves
02VOLUME DRIVERS
NZL · BEL — MD3Who carries the numbers
SHOTS
Belgium pump 18.5 shots/game into a deep block. De Bruyne (3.5+ in the last two) and full-back De Cuyper (5 vs Iran) lead the volume from distance and the overlap.
↓
SAVES / BLOCKS
NZ soak it up: Crocombe 17 saves, Surman 6 blocks on tour. The volume that doesn’t score becomes save volume.
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TRANSITION SOT
NZ’s output comes on the break — Just (3 SOT) and McCowatt (3 SOT) off Wood’s knock-downs (2 assists).
03CROSS-LINK
NZL · BEL — MD3Fact + fact → prop thesis. Direction only — no invented lines.
De Cuyper shots / SOTHIGH
A: Attacking full-back, 5 shots / 4 on target vs Iran
+
B: NZ low block concedes 18.5 shots/game to Belgium
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THESIS
De Cuyper OVER shots / SOT
De Bruyne shotsHIGH
A: KDB takes full creative & shooting freedom (3.5+ last two)
+
B: Surman-led zonal block forces shots from distance
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THESIS
De Bruyne OVER shots
Crocombe savesMEDIUM
A: Belgium’s wasteful high volume (3% conversion)
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B: Crocombe already at 17 saves on tour
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THESIS
Crocombe OVER saves — the flip side of Belgium’s misfiring attack
04EARLY RADAR
NZL · BEL — MD3On the radar, not yet called
Realization markets & LEAN reads — noisier profile, tracked early, not part of the main board.
Callum McCowatt
shots on target · OVER
Arrives off Wood’s knock-downs; 3 SOT on tour. Counter-dependent, so noisy.
OVERBASE
Elijah Just
shots on target · OVER
NZ’s other transition outlet (3 SOT) — only lives if NZ break cleanly.
OVERLEAN
Chris Wood
shots / headers · OVER
Aerial target vs reshuffled Belgian CBs (Ngoy banned) — set-piece dependent.
OVERWATCH
Match
first half under 1.5 · UNDER
Deep block + slow Belgian build until the block cracks — first-half lull.
UNDERWATCH
05THE PP SIGNAL
NZL · BEL — MD3Ranked player props
1
Maxim De Cuyper — shots / SOT OVER
Overlapping FB into a low block; 5 shots, 4 on target vs Iran.
HIGH2
Kevin De Bruyne — shots OVER
Forced into distance shooting against a packed box.
HIGH3
Max Crocombe — saves OVER
Belgium’s 18.5 shots at 3% conversion = save volume.
MEDEARLY RADAR — TRACKED, NOT CALLED
⊕
McCowatt / Just SOT, Wood headers, 1H Under
Realization & transition markets — noisier, watched early.
LEAN○
Cards — ref Makhadmeh
3.64 yellows/game — lenient → leans Under, no market line in sources.
UNRATED06AVOID
NZL · BEL — MD3Lines to leave alone
▸Lukaku — to score. Belgium average 0.5 goals/game at 3% conversion; no Belgian has scored from open play on tour. Sub risk for De Ketelaere if he misfires early.
▸Doku — any prop. Back from a chest infection & travel; still listed “doubtful.” Real risk of a bench start or early hook. Don’t price his minutes.
▸Cacace — to be carded. Exposed to Doku 1v1, but Makhadmeh is lenient (3.64/game) — he’ll likely play advantage before the card.
▸Cards / referee. Lenient profile, no market line in the sources — UNRATED.